Since President Bush commuted the sentence of Scooter Libby yesterday, the press has been full of people who either think it was a good thing or a bad thing. Of course, the Democrats have their panties in a wad about it, but that was to be expected. Others seem surprised that President Bush didn't give Libby a full pardon. This is exactly what I expected to happen as should anyone who really thought about it. Read on for why...

The whole Valerie Plame leak case was completely bogus to begin with. Since they couldn't find an actual crime to pin on someone from the Bush administration (they hoped it would be Cheney), they decided to pin Libby with lying to the grand jury. Fine. Whatever. So they convicted him and sentenced him to 30 months in jail and gave him a big fine, etc.

I expected they would go through the appeals process, and, if that failed, Bush would pardon Libby on the way out after the 2008 elections. But the judge in the case decided to up the stakes by requiring that Libby start serving the 30 month prison sentence while waiting for appeal. This is pretty rare in a white-collar criminal case. Usually they wait until the appeals are done.

But the judge apparently decided to do the Democrats a favor. They wanted to force Bush's hand now, rather than wait till after the election so the Democrats will have some political fodder to use over the incident. You know, "culture of corruption" and all that horse shit. But instead of granting a pardon, Bush gives Libby a commuted sentence. This allows Libby to stay out of jail during the appeal, which is what should have happened in the first place.

Now some people are worried that Libby will still have the taint of a criminal conviction as well as the $250,000 fine to pay. Not to worry. I predict that if the appeals fail, Bush will pardon Libby as planned on his way out the door. I could be wrong - I've been wrong about Bush before - but I don't believe so. Guess we'll wait and see.